⚡ RLM — Reverse Line Movement

The line moves AGAINST the popular side. Example: 80% of bets are on the Yankees, but the line moves FROM Yankees -150 TO Yankees -140 (becoming less favored). That means sharp money — professional bettors — are on the other team. This is one of the strongest signals in sports betting.

📈 Sharp Money IN

The line moved in favor of this team — it became shorter (more expensive to bet). Example: Opening -130, now -145. Sportsbooks adjust lines when smart money comes in on a side. Moving toward a team = sharp bettors backing them.

📉 Sharp Fade

The line moved AWAY from this team — it got longer (cheaper to bet). Example: Opening -145, now -130. This means sharp money is on the OTHER team. Books move the line to balance action when sharp bettors fade a side.

⚡ Steam Move

A sudden large line movement (50+ points) across multiple sportsbooks at the same time. This happens when a coordinated sharp betting group hits multiple books simultaneously. Steam moves are considered one of the clearest sharp money signals available.

📊 EV % — Expected Value

How much profit you'd make per $100 bet if you made this same bet thousands of times. EV 5% means you'd profit $5 per $100 wagered long-term. Positive EV (+EV) bets are mathematically profitable over time — this is the entire foundation of sharp betting.

📊 CLV — Closing Line Value

Did your bet price end up better than what the line closed at right before game time? If you bet a team at +140 and it closed at +120, you beat the close — that's positive CLV. Research shows that consistently beating the closing line is the single best predictor of long-term betting profitability.

🏦 No-Vig Line

The "true" probability of a game after removing the sportsbook's profit margin (the vig or juice). A -110/-110 total looks like each side has 52.4% chance — but after removing the vig, each side is really 50%. SharpIQ uses Pinnacle's no-vig line as the most accurate probability estimate.

🏦 Pinnacle Line

Pinnacle is the sharpest sportsbook in the world — they accept sharp bettors and don't limit winners. Their lines reflect where real smart money has landed. SharpIQ compares Pinnacle's odds vs soft books (DraftKings, FanDuel) to detect which side sharp money is on without needing ticket percentages.

🧪 xwOBA — Expected Weighted On-Base Average

A Statcast metric measuring the quality of contact — not just results. A batter who hits hard line drives that happen to be caught still has high xwOBA. It's more predictive than batting average or OPS because it strips out luck. Higher xwOBA = better hitter or worse pitcher.

🎯 K-BB% — Strikeout minus Walk Rate

The single best predictor of pitcher performance. A pitcher striking out 25% of batters and walking 7% has a K-BB% of 18 — elite. K-BB% is more stable than ERA because it strips out park effects, defense quality, and sequencing luck. SharpIQ uses this as the primary pitcher quality metric.

🎯 SIERA — Skill-Interactive ERA

A pitcher ERA estimator that uses strikeouts, walks, and ground ball rate — skills the pitcher actually controls. Much more predictive than ERA which includes teammate defense and sequencing luck. A pitcher with 2.50 SIERA is elite regardless of their actual ERA on the scoreboard.

🏟️ Hard Hit% / Barrel%

Statcast metrics measuring contact quality. Hard Hit% = balls hit 95+ mph exit velocity. Barrel% = balls hit with the ideal combo of speed and angle (expected slugging .500+). High barrel% allowed by a pitcher = vulnerable to home runs. High barrel% for a team = dangerous lineup.

🏟️ Park Factor

How much a stadium inflates or suppresses run scoring vs average (100). Coors Field is 132 — 32% more runs than average due to altitude. Oracle Park (SF) is 92 — 8% fewer runs than average due to marine air and dimensions. Critical for totals betting.

🏏 Platoon Advantage

Left-handed batters hit better against right-handed pitchers, and vice versa. When a team's lineup is stacked with lefties facing a weak right-handed starter, that's a platoon advantage. SharpIQ measures each team's actual wOBA vs LHP and vs RHP to quantify this edge.

😴 Bullpen Fatigue

When a bullpen has thrown heavy pitch counts over the last 3 days, late-inning relief pitching suffers. SharpIQ tracks weighted pitch counts (yesterday counts more than 3 days ago) and rates bullpens as LOW/MODERATE/HIGH fatigue. A HIGH fatigue bullpen typically allows +0.4 extra runs.

✈️ Travel Fatigue

Away teams crossing multiple time zones perform measurably worse. A team flying from Seattle (PT) to New York (ET) crosses 3 time zones — that's a real physical disadvantage, especially for day games after overnight travel. SharpIQ applies a run adjustment for cross-country trips.

⚠️ Short Rest

A starting pitcher throwing on 3 days rest instead of the normal 4-5. Short rest is a significant performance risk — fatigue, reduced velocity, and less prep time all show in the stats. SharpIQ flags these and applies a negative run adjustment for the short-rest pitcher's team.

📏 Runline (±1.5)

Baseball's version of a point spread. The favorite must win by 2+ runs to cover (-1.5), the underdog can lose by 1 run and still cover (+1.5). Runlines offer better odds on heavy favorites and are often sharper value than moneylines when one team has elite starting pitching.

💰 Implied Probability

What the odds say the chances of winning are — including the book's profit margin. -150 odds imply 60% chance of winning. +130 implies 43.5%. When SharpIQ's model probability is higher than the implied probability, there's positive EV on that bet.

⚡ ELITE Tier

SharpIQ's highest confidence rating. Requires 70%+ confidence AND 4+ independent confirming factors (e.g. sharp money + good pitcher matchup + platoon advantage + rest edge all agreeing). These are rare — typically 1-3 picks per day maximum. Treat these as your A-bets.

✅ STRONG Tier

Multiple independent factors confirming the same direction — 64%+ confidence with 2+ signals agreeing. These are solid plays worth betting at normal unit size. The model has meaningful edge here, not just marginal.

⬜ PASS Tier

Below 64% confidence — only one or two weak signals. The model sees slight value but not enough confirming factors to recommend. Many sharp bettors only bet STRONG and ELITE. PASS picks are shown for tracking purposes and research — not necessarily recommended bets.